Category Archives: Politics

Two Statistics

With the surge in draconian abortion laws sweeping the nation as conservative forces see glimmers of victory with the current make-up of the Supreme Court I think it is instructive to look at two disparate statistics.

Mind you, this is not an exhaustive argument, the reason why I consider myself to pro-choice are legion and at the heart of that reasoning is the simple fact that people should be allowed to live as they wish, including getting elective medical procedures that they want.

Maternal Mortality:

NPR and Pro-Publica published a finding on maternal mortality in the United States. The shocking and horrifying figure is 26.4 deaths per 100,000. Out of every 100,000 pregnant women 26.4 die from complications due to that pregnancy. (Other industrialized nations have far lower rates ranging from 3.8 to 9.2 per 100,000.) To carry a pregnancy to term is a decision that risks your very life and certainly the instances where the state can compel you to risk your life should be held to be most stringent of standards and not merely to suit the whim of moralistic politicians.

An argument I have heard is that the state can compel women to not have abortions to ‘save a life.’ First off that presumes an embryo or fetus is the same as a person and that’s something I reject but even accepting that standard yields strange and vast powers for the state. For example could the state compel someone to donate a kidney to ‘save a life?’ However let’s put aside the idea of the state grabbing people and dragging them of to suffer unwanted medical procedures to save a stranger and look at another statistic.

In 2017 the FBI reported the national murder rate to be 5.3 murders 100,000 people. An argument I have often heard against nearly all forms of firearm regulation is that people have a right to self-defense and such regulations put people in danger from denying them the tools they may need to exercise that right of self-defense. Of course we are currently experiencing an epidemic of mass shootings as unbalanced people, nearly always men and far more often then not white men, cowardly murder unarmed people in schools, public places, and houses of worship, sure to ‘save a life’ these rights could be as trampled as cavalierly as a woman’s right to determine her own destiny. After all a pregnant woman faces a death that is five times as likely as random person is to be murdered.

Naturally these statistics are unlikely to cause anyone to change their minds on either abortion or firearm regulation, both issues transcend any sort of reasoned position and are more strongly held as a marker for group and individual identity. The core driving factors are for the most part quite simple, anything that ‘tramples’ a right ‘I’ want to exercise is tyranny and those that ‘trample’ the rights of others or right I do not wish or cannot exercise aren’t being trampled at all but the product of ‘rational’ restrictions. It is much more difficult to recognize the rights of other than it is to vigorously fight for your own.

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The Tragic Failure of The GOP

The long awaited Muller Report is out and there is no doubt that it holds news that is of a concern to everyone. It is a relief that the investigation did not find that Trump or his campaign actively coordinated with a hostile foreign power to win the presidency. Make now mistake Trump in my opinion is by far the worse president in the modern age and perhaps ever in our history but we should be grateful that he not an asset or agent though he is a weakness that our enemies exploit.

Due to the diligent investigation we know a number of things as fact.

Russian efforts to manipulate the election were not confined to just he general campaign but also worked to push forward Trump candidacy during the GOP primary. For the Kremlin Trump was the preferred candidate.

Russia launched a sweeping, expensive, and targeted operation to manipulate the election in Trumps favor. This was no passing fancy aimed at simply sowing confusion or tainting a possible Clinton administration, though it would have had that effect had Trump lost so from a Russian perspective it was nearly a win either way.

Trump, though he lied about and attempted to keep it secret, extensively sought to build a massive tower in Moscow. The Trump Tower Moscow project required positive assent and cooperation from Putin and his circle of criminals, assistance that the Trump organization and family courted and pled for.

Trump personal, familial, and company financial exposure in the Moscow project is, because of hidden tax information, unknown which means Trump vulnerability to manipulation through his finances at the hands of the Russian is also unknown.

It is likely that the Russians wanted Trump in office not because of some grand ‘Manchurian Candidate’ style conspiracy but simply because due to Trump susceptibility to flattery and greed makes him particularly vulnerable to skilled manipulation.

At no time during the primary, though he leap to the lead with the electorate, was Trump the preferred candidate if the Republican establishment. These disturbing facts and shadowy connection to Russian oligarchs and criminals were as evident to them as it were to everyone else who cared to look and when Trump won the Presidency the GOP could have still acted as a patriotic party. I am not suggesting that the GOP should have abandoned their core goals of tax cuts and massive deregulation, though I do not agree with those aims. With President Trump the GOP could have their license to pollute and their deficit exploding tax cuts of more than one and half trillion dollars without surrendering so much of the administration to Trump. They could have held the line against grossly unqualified cabinet secretaries, they could have held the line against ignoring the Russian operation attacking our democracy, they could have kept true to the country while pursuing their ill-conceived and self-serving goals, but they did not. Terrified of the base that they created with decades of hyperbole and divisive campaigning, a base that embraced Trump the moment he arrived upon the scene, they folded, cowered from the monster of their own creation, and surrendered all their honor in exchanged for thirty pieces of silver. I only hope that their destruction and reconstruction takes place before it is too late for my beloved nation.

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All Too Predictable

Perhaps what I read was a terribly April Fool’s jest but given the history that is an outcome I find highly improbable. I generally spend some of my mornings doing political reading, news and opinion pieces from left and right to get a sense what may but on the active discussions and minds of political actors. This morning I read a piece by Rod Dreher titled ‘The Little Steps In Between.’ Quoting from a non-fiction book ‘They Thought They Were Free: The Germans 1933 – 1945.’ a survey of ten German citizen that lived through the rise and fall of Nazi Germany and published in 1955. The long quote pulled recounts how the decent into a murderous hate filled ideology did not happen suddenly but in gradual steps, bit by bit the people were brought along until it was far too late.

If you are familiar with Dreher’s work you undoubtedly see the twist coming to the foundations of his argument. Dreher is not speaking about the corruption of the conservative movement, a movement that professes a devotion to morality, often an explicit Christiane morality, a movement that professes a commitment to the value of each individual, a movement that professes a commitment to the notion of Truth, and yet this same movement has in steps accepted and embraced bigotry, lies, and torture. This is not the gradual steps towards Nazi’s that concerns Dreher but rather the ‘intolerable’ condition that public institutions are no longer allowed to engage in bigotry under the cover of ‘personal religious convictions,’ a fiction used the justify bigotry in the nation throughout its history. No the United States is not being submerged into hatred ideology by the rise of the alt-right, by openly white supremacist representatives, or a bigoted president that praises a gather of neo-Nazis as containing ‘very fine people,’ but rather by the mild insistence that public institutions are not allowed to discriminate.

To be clear I think that there is a clear difference between individuals and institutions, particularly public institutions that exist and gain tangible benefits from legal structures that derive from our common governments. A company or a corporation exist because we created the legal framework for them and they confer protections to the individuals that band together to create them, such as shielding personal assets from corporate misdeeds. Companies and corporation are not their owners and should not have the same rights and privileges as persons. Oh course the Christian Right has been hypocritical on this point. I recall quite clearly when California’s Prop 8, seeking enshrine in state constitution a legal definition of marriage as one man one woman, was fought in the public sphere and the Christian Right objected to boycotts of businesses whose owners had donated to the campaign to pass the amendment. They argued that private political actions and personal beliefs had no connection to their businesses and such linkages were unjust. Now that they have lost both the political and cultural battle over marriage they argue the exact opposite, that a business such as a hobby shop or bakery are extensions of their owners’ personal beliefs and sacrosanct under their personal religious freedom.

No Dreher is of course terrified if equality, engaging in the perpetual Christian Right fantasy of modern martyrdom. Like Jordan Petersen and his delusion of the ‘Murderous Equity Doctrine’ there is no end to the right playing themselves as the victim which not only makes them look ridiculous, encourages violence from their unbalanced members, but also robs them of genuine sympathy when their rights are under assault.

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Thoughts on the Mueller Report

Friday Robert Mueller turned in his report to the Attorney General of the United States and the AG Barr released a statement advising the congress and the public of the report’s conclusions.

The big revelations are Mueller found no evidence supporting the accusation and concluded that Trump and his campaign did not coordinated with the Russian governments interference with out election and did not coordinate their campaign in general with Russia. The other major element Barr relayed to us was that Mueller came to no conclusion on the question of Trump’s innocence or guilt concerning accusations of obstruction of Justice.

Let’s take a quick look at both of these elements.

First off, I breathe a sigh of relief that Mueller did not find coordination. While I still think of Trump as corrupt it is good to know that he is not both corrupt and traitorous. Secondly, this adds support to the reports that Trump never actually intended to win the presidency. If he wanted to win and he was corrupt dealing and coordinating with Russia might have been a temptation he could not have resisted. That said it is clear that Russia and Putin, for they are the same thing, *wanted* Trump to win. They interfered in the primary and the general election seeking to have him become the next president. Perhaps because they believed he would be so inept that it would harm America on the world’s stage, perhaps because they felt he was easily manipulated, or perhaps because they thought that they had leverage due to his extensive and questionable dealing with Russia and it’s cadre of rich corrupt oligarchs. Any or all of these can be true without Trump ever truly wanting the office or working closely or at all with the Russians to win it. The opaqueness of his finances makes it impossible to be certain that powerful individuals do not have financial leverage on him. The fact of no electoral collusion does not free him of other dark suspicions.

Mueller apparently did not come to any conclusions on the issue of Trump and Obstruction of Justice and this is likely a good thing. Robert Mueller from everything I have read is a man who has served his nation well and honorably for decades and it is unlikely he would side step such a conclusion, one way or the other, lightly. Ultimately this issue comes down to the question of impeachment and that is a political question not a law enforcement one. By leaving the question unanswered Mueller has pushed into the only court with the legitimacy to deal with it, the political court and investigations by the legislative braches.

The fat lady has not sung and the opera continues.

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After The Electoral College — Maybe

There has been a lot of talk recently of doing away with the Electoral College, the actual system by which the United States selects its president. In each state the people vote not for a candidate directly but for a slate of electors who have pledged themselves to support a stated person for the position. The elector meets and vote and the person who obtains a clear majority of that vote becomes the president. In the event that no one has a clear majority the House of Representatives determines the winner. With our mature two party system there is nearly always a majority winner, but as we have seen recently and repeatedly that winner, due to the quirks of the states, their populations, and how electors are distributed, may have actually lost the national popular vote. These lesser votes winning the election results are called electoral misfires and with the current president having lost the popular vote by 3 million votes has reignited the debate about how we elect our president with many advocating for a direct popular vote. I am, in general, in favor of direct elections, but I do wonder how we might handle the undoubtedly different outcomes it would generate.

Our two party indirect method of electing a president makes candidates from third parties nearly or wholly irrelevant. With the two major parties fielding candidates that many found deeply unpopular only one third party managed ballot access in all 50 states and obtained a popular votes total of just over 3 percent. But even just that minor number of votes lost in 2016 no major candidate crossed over 50% of the vote. How do you handle the situation where no one has gotten a majority of the votes?

Do you go with simply the largest votes total and accept a minority vote president?

Do you have run offs eliminating candidate until you have a majority winner?

Do you introduce a voting scheme such as ranked choice that creates the effect of an instant run off?

All of these solutions have their pluses and minuses with their advocates fiercely defending their adoption.

Here’s an idea; after the vote totals are known if no candidate has crossed the 50% line, starting with the person with the least number of votes, each candidate assigns their vote total to one of the top two in vote total. The process is repeated until a candidate crosses the 50% mark and wins the election.

This is in one way very similar to the instant run off created by rank choice voting but with what I think is an important distinction, it is not automatic. The losing candidate elects where his votes will go and to whom he, or she, gives their support, creating an incentive for horse-trading. A candidate who campaign had been dedicated to a cause, such as global warming, minority rights, or whatever can demand tangible concession in exchange for their support, cabinet posts, legislation, and so one. This means the winner has to have not just de facto coalitional support in order to win but that those collations are explicit and thereby reducing that likelihood that they will be ignored or taken for granted.

This idea is far from perfect but I think it has promise.

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A Most Dangerous President

In a recent interview with Breitbart Trump boasted of the ‘toughness’ of his supporters on the right.

 

“You know, the left plays a tougher game, it’s very funny. I actually think that the people on the right are tougher, but they don’t play it tougher. Okay? I can tell you I have the support of the police, the support of the military, the support of the Bikers for Trump – I have the tough people, but they don’t play it tough — until they go to a certain point, and then it would be very bad, very bad.”

 

This love, admiration, and longing for ‘toughness’ is a clarion call to violence. It is call that is heard and is welcomed. It was heard by Lt Christopher Hasson, USCG and his alleged plotting to murder Trump’s liberal enemies, it was heard by Cesar Sayoc and his alleged mailing explosive devices to Trump’s liberal enemies, it is heard and taken to heart by racists around the globe. A man who admires the slaughter of the peaceful protesters in China now occupies the White House and despite all this is supported by a major political party because victory overrides all sense of morality, justice, and honor and worst troubles are ahead for our Union.

 

Is needs to be remembered that in the waning days of the 2016 election Trump busily laid the foundation for rejecting the election likely outcome as a product of fraud and illegitimate. As a losing candidate Trump running around, getting money from suckers, as he frothed about stolen election would have been juts one more reality show for the con-man, but he did not lose. The results shocked he and the nation when even though he lost the popular contest by 3 million votes he won the presidency. To save his overinflated and fragile ego and – ah hem – reputation Trump immediately and insanely attacked the popular vote tally as fraudulent. Now we face something I do not think we have ever faced as a nation, the possibility of a sitting president, one that stokes violence, refusing to accept the outcome of an election.

 

This national nightmare, and our previous on was nothing more than a shiver from a cold draft, is far from over.

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Thoughts on the College Admission Scandal

The last couple of days have been amusing as various celebrities have been entangled with federal crimes concerning issues over fraud and bribery over college admissions for their precious offspring. At a time with justice and equality are rising as political concerns and coupled with the dazzling nature of celebrity it is no surprise that this news story is finding its legs.

My reactions fall into one of two major lines of thought.

First off; no duh. It is of absolutely no surprise that these sort of things are going on, the only original element is that these lower tier celebs had to resort to criminal means instead of the usual just buy your way in with an overly generous ‘gift’ as the more wealthy does. An elite institution will admit anyone if there is a large enough endowment attached. This is the real affirmative action crisis, mediocre and worse student taking up valuable slots in important institutions solely because of the accident of their birth. This does not stop at the university; it extends through internships and entry into the halls of power, both economic and political. I have read, though not yet confirmed, that the number of legacy students, i.e. sons and daughters of former students, at elite universities outnumber the total number of non-white students. This is the lie at the heart of ‘merit.’ Too often what people think was merit is a perk of class and nothing more.

Second this is also a function of gate-keeping and elitism. Harvard, Yale, and many other ‘elite’ institutions are sitting on vast fortunes. They could open dozens of schools across the country, vastly increasing the number students, graduates, and accelerating human advancement but that would destroy their brand as their only real value is the artificially restricted enrollments.

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Some Thoughts on the Representative Ilhan Omar Controversy

People following politics are undoubtedly aware that freshman Representative Ilhan Omar of Minnesota had landed a couple of time in hot water for comments critical of Israel and America’s relationship with Israel that invoked imagery or concepts closely linked to anti-Semitism. The House is considering a resolution condemning all forms of anti-Semitism and conservatives are in full attack.

I do not know what it is Representative’s Omar heart. She does not have a paper trail of lawsuits concerning civil rights violations of a racist nature and her public record if correspondingly short given her recent entry into national public discourse but her comments are unsettlingly in the close nature of classic anti-Semitic tropes.

Before I continue let me make clear an important concept, context matters. During the administration of President George W. Bush a common caricature of the president utilized his unfortunately prominent ears giving him an ape-like appearance. Fair game in the world of rough and tumble politics, but doing the same thing to President Obama is not the same, despite some conservative who insisted it was some sort of double standard. Portraying any black man with an ape-like appearance plays on centuries of vile racist imagery and it out of bounds for any civilized discussion. Context is king.

With Representative Omar’s unfortunate choice of words I see that it would fall into one of three major categories.

First: Representative Omar harbors some level of anti-Semitic thought or feeling.

Second: Representative Omar has spent or spends considerable time associating with people who are comfortable voice anti-Semitic positions. (This is an effect I have watched take place with some conservative friends as they repeat ‘jokes’ or opinions voice by darker corners of the movement. Living examples of the adage ‘lie with dogs; rise with fleas.’)

Third: Representative Omar stumbled into these anti-Semitic tropes accidently, unaware of the history behind these ideas and insults.

Time and future behavior will make it easier to judge which of these categories best fits her actions.

That said it is clear to me that the attacks from conservatives are disingenuous. Their lack of any serious reactions to numerous similar situations put a lie to all their pearl clutching over Omar’s comments. Representative Steve King had to openly question why ‘white supremacy’ was a bad thing before they rose in any meaningful fashion opposing his years of public bigotry, to say nothing of the president’s repeated crossing of numerous lines of racist comments.

As to the potential resolution of condemnation, the House should make it explicit that referring to sovereign nations as ‘shitholes’ or considering neo-Nazis chanting ‘Jews will not replace us’ as ‘fine people’ is equally unacceptable.

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