.

Well, the answer to that is yes, it can but will it do so is a very different proposition. It has been about 30 years, three decades, since a Democrat has won a statewide office in the nation’s second-largest state. Texas is about as ‘red’ as you can get in terms of how friendly the political ground is for the Republican party, but that doesn’t mean it is impossible for this year’s election to erupt with a surprise in November.

The most compatible comparison might be the 2018 Senate race between Beto O’Rourke and incumbent Senator Ted Cruz. It was an off-year cycle election with Trump in the White House and a presidential approval of less than 50 percent. While O’Rourke failed to dislodge the disliked senator from his seat, his failure was closer than one might expect in the Lone Star State, falling about two and a half points behind when the votes were tallied. It was not a terribly surprising result as at no point during the election cycle did O’Rourke lead Cruz in the polling.

2026 is not the same as 2018.

Trump’s approval numbers are in the low 30s with some polls dropping him into the 20s. In 2018 the economy was humming along with very low interest rates without any serious inflation concerns. 2026 on the other hand is seeing serious inflation, with gas and food prices rising rapidly in the shadow of an unpopular war without an apparent end in sight. This is the situation at the start of the summer with a long hot travel season ahead. Add to this that while O’Rourke sought to unseat an incumbent, Talarico isn’t facing the same challenge.  While Cruz was personally unlikeable to many, he presented and coded as a bog-standard Republican politician. The same cannot be said of Paxton, whose scandal sheet trails him like toilet paper stuck to his heel. Also, unlike O’Rourke, Talarico has already led his opponent in several polls.

Does this mean that Talarico will win?

No.

I would still call Paxton the favorite but not a prohibitive one. This cycle is trending closer to a toss-up than any Texas Senate race in memory. I think this race will be close enough that the national party will be forced to expend resources on a race that in any other year they could have safely ignored. November, no matter how it turns out, should provide some excitement.