I had thought that the Kavanaugh confirmation was a done deal unless something exploded to derail the process and now it looks as if something has done exactly that. The confirmation is in doubt, not killed, but certainly in doubt.

The accusation that he, when 17, drunkenly tried to rape a 15 year old girl has ignited a firestorm and where someone stands on the issue is more determined by the politics of the observer than any objective analysis or consideration. When presented with contradictory or confusing my standard is to go with the simplest explanation. Without supporting evidence, not conjecture, I reject conspiracy theories. The fact that there is a documented trail about Dr. Ford’s experience that well precedes the nomination is enough for me to dismiss that the charge itself is politically motivated. This is not a lie invented to derail the nomination. Someone assaulted Dr. Ford when she was a young teenager and she believes that person to be Judge Kavanaugh,

There are those who think that ‘mistakes’ made as a teenager should not be held against a person many decades later. Certainly that is good general principal but there are mistake and there are actions that transcend that bland descriptor. This was no aggressive flirting; this was no crude and lewd suggestion. This was a violent attempt to rape a young girl. Music turned up loud to cover the sounds, gagging her with his hand, this is not a sexual misadventure this is an assault. Some actions will follow you through you life and rape and trying to rape can certainly be one of those.

Does the drinking excuse?

No. I have read at least one piece that tries to construct a defense that some people are very different when they are drunk. Certainly some people behave very differently when they are drunk. Alcohol removes inhibitions revealing the elements of character that people strive to conceal. One way to think about it is that it is not that drunkenness creates a new persona but reveals the one that had been hidden.

Judge Kavanaugh has categorically denied the event ever took place. He has not claimed  ‘youthful indiscretion,’ he has not claimed to not remember the particulars because of heavy drinking, but flatly declares that he never participated in such an assault. After so many years there is no physical evidence that can be used to confirm contradict the account. Every conclusion observer’s reach will have to be by way on inference and judgment of character.

Eighteen hours after the story surfaced the administration provided a letter signed by 65 women who knew Judge Kavanaugh at that time attesting to his character. They were not at the party. They were not present in the room. I find the letter itself to be very interesting. To produce such a letter less than a day after the events became public is blazingly fast and suggests to me that the letter was prepared and ready to go. Yes, it is physically possibly to locate and contact that number of people in that time but it is less credible than the assumption that the letter was ready in advance. If it was prepared overnight that should be easy to demonstrate, phone logs, and the women themselves should vividly remember getting the calls throughout the night. No logs have been produced to counter the narrative that the letter was prepared in advance and the women have proved to be difficult to contact by the media. All this suggests that the letter was prepared in advanced, which it suggests that an issue of this nature was one that the confirmation team expected as a possibility. That calls into question Kavanaugh’s denials.

It is important to remember that this not a legal process but a political one. Judge Kavanaugh faces no legal consequences from this. He may not be confirmed to a lifetime seat on the Supreme Court but that is not an entitlement. Lifetime appointments need to be made with the utmost care. They are lifetime appointment because the concept is that the people who are confirmed to such position need to be insulated from the hubbub of the storm tossed political seas. Since removing someone from such an appointment is a difficult and rare proposition the people so confirmed need to be of excellent judgment and unimpeachable character.

How both people conduct themselves will be our only guide to their judgment and character.