Well it has been one week since the first presidential debate between Obama and Romney and boy did that shake up the race. In my post about the debate I suggested that a Romney gaining more than three points would be ahistorical and very bad news for President Obama.
So let’s take a look at some numbers. When I suggest that Obama had the wind at his back here are the number I used to support that contention.
9/29
RCP poll of Polls Obama +4.3
TPM polltracker Obama +3.9
Pollster Obama +4.4
INtrade Obama+ $5.71 (7.85 vs 2.14)
Things looked good for the president, but in the debates Obama fumbled his diplomacy roll (Yea, I know skills rolls don’t have fumbles, but he still managed to do it.) Romney pivoted to the center and pulled off a very good debate performance.
Here are those same metrics as of today.
10/10
RCP Romney +1
TPM Polltracker Romney +2.4
Pollster Romney +.1
Intrade Obama +$ 2.57 (6.34 vs 3.77)
That’s a 5.3 loss in the RCP averages, 6.3 in the TPM polltracker, 5.4 in Pollsters aggregate poll. This is frigging huge. The race is not over, but there is less than a month until the election and this is a very bad time to throw away your lead. Liberal partisan have been wailing, Andrew Sullivan going into full President Palin Panic, while the conservatives have been as giddy as a fanboy on a date with Natalie Portman
What I find curious is that the state by state still favors Obama, but not by much. Frank.ly I think this increases he chance of another misfire, where the popular vote and the electoral vote go north and south.
My November 6 party may run late after all.
The Obama campaign caricature of Romney as a right-wing extremist was never going to hold water once the publiic got a good unfiltered picture. That kind of campaign demagoguery only works when you can bury your opponent with massive negative advertising and outspend him tremendously.
This election Obama wasn’t going to have the kind of money advantage the Democrats enjoyed in 2008 or 1996. Not with moneybags Romney as the Republican candidate.
Which makes it doubly stupid for the Obama campaign to play games this election by encouraging illegal on-line campaign contributions, the very same way they did in the 2008 election. In 2008 the Obama campaign claimed “oops!” What is their excuse four years later? There is no excuse, it’s crooked as hell.
http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/329680/why-no-security-barackobamacom-donations
“To purchase Obama campaign merchandise, the campaign requires buyers to enter their credit card CVV security code, but does not require the credit card security code to be entered when making an online campaign donation. “