Well it has been one week since the first presidential debate between Obama and Romney and boy did that shake up the race. In my post about the debate I suggested that a Romney gaining more than three points would be ahistorical and very bad news for President Obama.

So let’s take a look at some numbers. When I suggest that Obama had the wind at his back here are the number I used to support that contention.

9/29

RCP poll of Polls        Obama +4.3

TPM polltracker        Obama +3.9

Pollster                       Obama +4.4

INtrade                      Obama+ $5.71 (7.85 vs 2.14)

Things looked good for the president, but in the debates Obama fumbled his diplomacy roll (Yea, I know skills rolls don’t have fumbles, but he still managed to do it.) Romney pivoted to the center and pulled off a very good debate performance.

Here are those same metrics as of today.

10/10

RCP                             Romney +1

TPM Polltracker        Romney +2.4

Pollster                       Romney +.1

Intrade                       Obama +$ 2.57 (6.34 vs 3.77)

That’s a 5.3 loss in the RCP averages, 6.3 in the TPM polltracker, 5.4 in Pollsters aggregate poll. This is frigging huge. The race is not over, but there is less than a month until the election and this is a very bad time to throw away your lead. Liberal partisan have been wailing, Andrew Sullivan going into full President Palin Panic, while the conservatives have been as giddy as a fanboy on a date with Natalie Portman

What I find curious is that the state by state still favors Obama, but not by much. Frank.ly I think this increases he chance of another misfire, where the popular vote and the electoral vote go north and south.

My November 6 party may run late after all.