So, now let’s look at the second of 2012 and see what sort of thing your humble host and narrator might be interested in.
2012, the expecting, part II
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Category Archives: Politics
A General Political catch-up post
I haven’t posted on politics in awhile and boy has there been a number of interesting events. So here, in no particular order, are my own muddled thoughts. Continue reading
What happened? Updated
So last night I brought up the question what happened to the Republican dominance in California for Presidential elections. Brad theorized that it was a demographic change that lead to Claifornia becoming a safe state for the Democratic Party in presidential elections. I expressed some doubt, but he may be right. Be low the cut is a graph I made of the popular vote totals in California for both the Republican and Democratic presidential candidates. For comparison I also graphed the popular vote totals for both parties nationally.
The Democratic part has been gaining steadily in the Golden State since about 1980, this did not translate into victories until 1992, but the trend is plain. What I found even more surprising was that the trend was mirrored, though delayed in the national vote totals. From 1952 through 2008 in general the Democratic Party has been gaining popular votes and the Republican Party has been bleeding them.
If this is demographics, then it could spell massive trouble for the Republican Party. The Tea Party revolution will be carrying the party into the wrong direction for electoral victory. Note that the Republicans did not lose votes totals, slipping behind the Democrats when the total losses became too great, but rather votes moved from the Republican ledger to the Democratic ledger. It is hardly likely that those migrating votes are of a Tea Party mentality. As such moving towards the Tea Party is unlikely to bring those votes back to the Republican party and is therefore unlikely to help in the long term electoral prospects of that party. (there may be short term swings such as 1964 or 1994 but the trend lines continue.)
Becoming a lite version of the Democratic pArty is no answer, rather the Republicans are faced with a generational challenge of finding a philosophical stance that agrees with their principles, and is flexible enough to sweep in votes from the growing Democratic wave.
So what happened?
A friend of mine is fond of saying that his vote, nationally, doesn’t matter because he lives here in California and no matter what he thinks, wants, or votes California is going to be in the Democratic column come election night.
Today that is true, but it hasn’t always been that way.
From 1952 through 1988 California was a reliable Republican state, only once 1964 ending up in the Democratic totals during the Goldwater Disaster. However from 1988 through the current day, five straight elections, California has gone Democratic and teh Republicab’s haven’t had a ghost of chance at the electoral college votes locked up in the Golden State. Why?
Did California turn that Liberal in 1992?
Did the Republicans move that far right in 1992?
Was it a combination of both?
A very deserving collapse
I am terribly pleased to see that this man’s campaign has collapsed. Should by some quirk of fate he rise again and takes the nomination I will happily vote for Obama against him in the general election.
Can he get the ring off the map?
A game I own and used to play quite a bit with friends of mine is Risk: the Lord Of The Rings Edition. Unlike normal Risk which is a game that can last forever, I remember games that went over entire weekends, this version actually has a set ending. There is a timer of sorts, a golden ring (the One Ring) traveling to Mordor. To get the ring to Mordor the player’s whose turn it was had to roll high enough to get the ring there, if he failed the ring sat in place and the next player took a turn and the end tried to move the ring off the map and end the game. In general whoever had the final turn usually ended up winning.
Watching the Republican Nomination process this cycle I’m suddenly think if Risk: Lord Of The Rings again. There are only 27 days until the first contest and the first delegates and I am wondering if Newt can get the ring off on his turn. If you look at the chart of combined polls above you can see that Romney has a fairly steady level of support, but never a lot. One by one others have challenged him, first Bachmann but even as she started to climb, Perry jumped into the race stole her fire, raced to the lead and crashed just as quickly. Perry was replace by Cain, he took his turn at the lead and then like Icarus fly too high, got burned and came crashing to the ground, now it seems to be Newt’s turn. (‘My name’s Newt! No One calls be Rebecca!’ — Sorry, wrong Newt.) He’s getting to level that none of the other not-Romney have attained and he’s doing it so close to the first contests. Can he start a tide of victories and steal the nomination from the traditional Republican choice? (The runner up from the last contest often seem to get the nomination with the Republcan Party, see John McCain for details.)
No matter what happens, it’s going to be exciting.
An example of why G.O.P. now stands for God’s Own Party
I will never vote for a man who insist I have to have religious faith to have good judgment.
Back to the Alamo with you…
So I now know what to get my Republican friends for Christmas, clothes-pins, because holding their nose for Romney for twelve months until the elect is going to require some assistance.
Politics and Rocky Horror PIcture Show Memories
Way back in the 1980s, when life was rough and fun at the same time, I got involved with a local Rocky Horror Picture Show group. For those not in the know The Rocky Horror Picture Show is a campy failed musical film that found a second life as a midnight movie. During the presentations fans would dress up as the characters and mime out the film in front of the screen, while the audience participated with MST3K style lines shouted back in response to dialog and events in the story. The story is one of mad science, aliens, Rock and Roll, and of course, Sex. The costumes for the film are outlandish, daring, and ignore normal gender roles. Continue reading
This is your official ‘I told you so’
Sarah Palin announces she will not run for President.
All those weak-kneeded sister who quaked and quivered at the though of President Palin can calm the frak down. This woman is in her happy spot of celebrity and money, she’s not budging from it.
It looks to me like there are no more Great Right Hopes left to save the Republican Party from itself. I suspect the base will hold there nose next November and vote for Romney, just like they did for the hated McCain.