Category Archives: Politics

Trump’s Obesity Should be Off the Table

Listen, I am far from any fan of the current narcissistic man-baby occupying the Presidency. In my opinion he is a conman, corrupt, dim-witted, mean, lying and morally reprehensible. The sooner he can be removed from this position and someone of general competence installed the better for this nation and yes for the world. The current pandemic illustrates perfectly why there is always someone to vote against and that the office of President of the Unites States of America is not place for On-The-Job training.

That said attacks on his weight are offensive and stupid. The man’s corruption and incompetence are a factor of his BMI. People who would consider themselves sensitive to marginalized communities will still, gleefully, share memes and gifs that are hurtful far beyond their target of the man-baby president. These attacks belittling him due to his size are no better and in my view equivalent to Trump’s mocking of a disabled reporter. Is that really the company you want to keep?

I also despise the food snobbery people direct at Trump and indirectly at others. Food is one of the purely personal pleasures in life. I’m not going to judge you by what you eat to make you happy and if that’s what you do to others then in that instance, you’re the asshole.

I’ll vote for a potted palm to get this cruel, petty, dishonest, conman out of the office but I will maintain my morality while I am doing it.

 

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One Possible but Unlikely Scenario

With Jared Kushner’s irresponsible and utterly unsupported and unsupportable statements about not being ‘committed’ to holding the Presidential contest on the scheduled election date, and you can imagine the utter freak-out if anyone close the Obama had ever even whispered such an idea, people are concerned and frightened for what this lawless corrupt conman of a president might do to steal the election.

Moving the election date requires an act of congress and the House ain’t going to do that. Canceling the election is not going to happen. No, there will be an election but it is vital to remember that in November you are not voting for a person but a slate of electors committed to voting for a particular candidate. The constitution does not require that the people have a direct say in how the electors to the electoral college are selected, that is a matter left to the states. Voting for slates of electors to support this or that candidate arose very quickly after the constitution was adopted but it is not required at all.

So, take an important swing state like Florida, currently under GOP control in both the executive and the legislature. There’s nothing constitutionally preventing the Florida Senate and House in coordination with the governor from setting aside all votes cast in the November election and sending a slate of electors of their own choosing to represent the state in the electoral college. Such an action would take place after the popular voting and before the Electoral College meets and could swing the legally results of the election.

Our system is built on a foundation of trust and norms that presupposes honorable people acting with moral motivations and there lies it fatal flaw.

This scenario is vastly unlikely but entirely plausible.

 

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COVID-19 in the Executive

With reports that members of both the presidential and vice-presidential Staffs have tested positive for COVID-19 the pandemic has now reached the executive branch of the United States of America.

It is not inconceivable that both the president and the vice president who have been directly exposed to members who have tested positive for the virus may themselves catch the virus and become ill. Should that occur with both men being of the demographic group likely to be hard hit by the virus it is equally conceivable that both men could be incapacitated and admitted to intensive care units to deal with a raging infection.

If you think the current political environment in Washington DC is not chaotic enough just imagine the sheer pandemonium that would result from such a situation, the succession of power for the presidency is clear. In the event that the president is incapacitated and fulfill his duties those duties devolved to the vice president if vice president is also unable to fulfill the requirements of the office then the powers devolved to the speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi.

I can think of no greater political thermonuclear device and our heated divided and sharply partisan times then to have the powers of the presidency residing with Nancy Pelosi. That is not to make a comment on whether she would wield those powers well or badly or if this a desired or undesired outcome only an observation that such an event would prove catastrophic Lee cataclysmically disruptive to our national political conversation, such as it is.

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Masks? We Don’t Need No Stinkin’ Masks

As with everything else in the current United States the simple logical and socially responsible act of wearing a mask in public had become a signifier of one’s political and tribal identity. In order loyalty-signal that one if a true and virtuous supporter of the President and all things beloved by Trump a mask in public must be forsworn, save for the township of Santee, CA where a KKK Hood is considered an acceptable substitute. Even in the White House and people who have direct contact with the nation’s chief executive, despite that the wearing of such equipment is about protecting not the wearer of the mask but the people that come into contact with, one does not wear a mask lest you provoke a Trump tantrum.

Of course, it has now turned out that one of the presidential valets who serves Trump his meals did not wear a mask and has now tested positive for the corona virus. Sources describe the president as ‘lava mad.’ I suppose it will be two weeks before we know if Trump has been infected enough to become ill with COVID-19 throwing this country into a political crisis on top of an economic crisis on top of a pandemic crisis.

Seriously, think about Trump falling critically ill. IN theory, on paper there’s no trouble if the president become incapacitated the Vice-President assume the powers of the office and things proceed, but this Administration does not exist in a theoretical ideal state. It is staffed with bootlickers chosen for their personal loyalty to Trump with motivations that do not line up neatly with the political class’s objectives. Our nation’s capital, already a swamp of backstabbing and camera hogging would turn so vicious as to make King’s Landing look like an afternoon volleyball game.

For the GOP, decades of degrading expertise, rejecting objective knowledge, and fomenting grievance politics over rational thought has come home to roost.

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2016 versus 2020

Barring extraordinary circumstances, and really how likely is that (*cough cough*) we have our contenders for the 2020 United States presidential contest this fall, Trump and Biden. As we look forward to the elect it is instructive to look back at the last cycle and consider some of the things that worked in Trump’s favor in that election and ask how they may have changed for this one.

First off, Biden is not Hillary Clinton. For whatever reason and however large a part misogyny may have played a part in it, Hillary Clinton carried 30 years of vicious political baggage going into that November. Clinton’s candidacy provoked intense reactions that appear to be absent, fairly or unfairly, with Biden. I am not diagnosing why, only observing the effect. Biden is not attempting to counter such levels of visceral hate robbing Trump of that advantage.

In 2016 for those inclined to be charitable Trump was an unknown. There existed in the air the expectation that the immense responsibilities of the office could not leave any person unchanged and that would lead to Trump becoming ‘presidential.’ I think that there was also an attitude that disregarded all of the troubles reporting on trump, his behavior, his disregard for the truth, as simply part of politics and thus turned such things into a non-factor. After a term as president, Trump character is fully revealed and his approval number show that he’s had a difficult time convincing anyone beyond his base of his worthiness.

Perhaps the most important difference between the 2016 and 2020 elections is that it is no longer considered an impossibility that Trump can win.

Five Thirty-Eight on the eve of the election gave the odds of a Trump victory as 1 in 3 and they were roundly mocked for that assessment as so many thought it was by far too generous to Trump.

The L.A. Times predicted an electoral college victory for Clinton of 332 to 206.

Fox News favored Clinton in the E.C. with 274 to 215.

The Associated Press had her at 274 to 190.

The accepted consensus view was that the election was a mere formality to Clinton claiming the presidency and that the evening would prove to be terrible dull of political watchers.

What happened was that by a margin of about 70,000 votes in three states Clinton lost the electoral college. How many people stayed home because they ‘knew’ the outcome? How many people didn’t bother to vote because they ‘knew’ that there was no need to stop Trump because he had already lost? If you ‘know’ that the lying, racist, fool can’t win there’s no need to put yourself through the psychological trauma of ‘holding your nose’ and voting for someone you dislike. It doesn’t matter.

But of course, it did matter.

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Bernie Blew It

Senator Bernie Sanders (I) failed for the second time to take over a political party of which he was not a member. The reasons for his failure are not something that is easily testable. Every election is a one-off with many unique variables but I think there are few reason assumptions that can reached.

Sanders did quite well in the 2016 primary battle against Hillary Clinton but the vote level he achieved were not an indication of his own or his ideas popularity but a mixture of those who supported him for his stands and those voting for him because he was not Clinton. I don’t think Bernie ever quite understood just how much of his success, and that success was still less popular than Hillary Clinton’s, was an expression of a desire for someone, anyone, other than the former Secretary of State. This led Bernie into thinking that for 2020 he had a much higher base to build upon and feeds into his misguided plan of attack to win the nomination, a popular political revolution.

When asked throughout this extended campaign season how he was going to enact his seeping and revolutionary policies Sanders responded that his candidacy was going to energize and mobilize a vast number of people who had never participated in the political process. This wave of new voters would sweep into power not just Sanders but an entire new class of elected officials that shared his philosophy and would remake the face of American politics.

Bernie’s army never materialized at the polls.

Without his mythical army of new voters Sanders exposed as a factional candidate and he failed to adapt to this. Instead of seeing that his core message and support was limiting his ability to grow his voter base and win the nomination Bernie ‘doubled down’ on his message and relied on stubbornness and his own power of personality to take over the Democratic party. You can respect him for staying committed to his ideals, to refusing to show any sign of compromise, but in the Democratic party as it is currently constituted that is far from enough to win majority support.

None of this underscores the effect Sanders has had on American politics. He has dragged the Democratic party to the left and the policies proposed by other candidates and getting wide support are much further to the left than anything since before the rise of Reaganism and had Bernie himself been willing to meet the party part way he may have done better but he did not.

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To Hold onto Power the GOP is Willing to Kill You

We are living through a global pandemic and to gather in large crowds is to take a risk to your life a risk that grows greater with your age. Wisely, many states, though not all, have issues orders and guidelines for the population to stay in their homes, to avoid close proximity to other people, and take other precautions to void becoming infected or passing the virus to others. 2020 is also an election year and recognizing the importance of both our electoral and health civic duties many states have postponed their primary and other elections while also instituting procedures allowing people to vote by mail ensuring that both duties are honored.

Except for Wisconsin.

Wisconsin held an election this week, April 7th, 2020 to be precise. The Governor, Tony Evers, a Democrat, had called the legislature into a special session to deal with the electoral issue during their pandemic crisis. The Republican controlled body gaveled themselves into session and then immediately disbanded the session without taking any action or debate at all. They were equally unwilling to make voting by mail any easier even as the virus continues to spread throughout the nation and their state. Milwaukee normally has 180 polling station for an election, due to people fears of coming out and gathering in large numbers so many volunteer polls quit that the city was forced to conduct its election with just five polling stations.

The GOP sees this election as critical. The state is filling a spot on the Wisconsin Supreme court and if the conservative can win the seat it will cement a conservative majority on the panel. It is axiomatic for conservatives that low turnout elections benefit the Republican party and apparently, they are willing to do anything to depress turnout and win including placing the voting population in peril of a deadly infectious disease.

Here is Wisconsin Speaker of the Assembly Robin Voss and how he appeared at a polling station to advise the public it was ‘incredibly safe’ to show up to vote.

Photo from CNN

This portends badly for the November elections. The popular vote has been trending against the GOP for several elections and rather than adjusting their stands to conform with the public they would rather disenfranchise and kill voters. I hope this blows up in their face. I hope that in Wisconsin the voters brave enough and committed enough to show up and stand for hours with other people are the ones dedicated to seeing the perversion of democracy ended. Only time and the vote total will tell.

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A Few Collected Thoughts About the Current Crisis

My week of intense book promotion has ended and so today I’m going to toss out just a few thoughts about our current pandemic crisis.

 

There’s no point beyond racist blaming to insist on calling it by some derivation of its geographic origin. It has an official name that’s not hard to use, Covid19. To quote my own novel,

Do not hide your intention behind a facade of ‘accuracy.’

There is reason to mistrust some of the data from China but that doesn’t absolve any of the bungling and lies by our own government and politicians.

Inaction at the start of this crisis, when experts were calling for swift and important steps to be taken and the scope was becoming clear, is the reason we’re deep in trouble. This was never going to be easy. It’s a novel virus and we’re all susceptible but months ago procedures could have been put in place, testing capacity increased, and vital equipment produced ahead of the crisis. None of that was done because it clashed with what our leaders wanted to hear and once you can no longer utilize hard truths you’ve already lost.

 

This is why it is always vital to vote.

We are stuck with a narcissistic immature vengeful man-baby as our president because a handful of people didn’t get their preferred candidate. Hell, I was deeply unhappy with our selection in 2016 but it was painfully clear who could operate better in a crisis. Everyone who voted for Trump or cheered his victory shares in this disaster but also to blame are those who were ‘unenthused’ to vote against him. Voting is a responsibility, a civic duty, not a lark subject to whims and moods.

 

This will go on for awhile. It’s going to be tough, it’s going to be painful, if we try to take an easy route out it will end up being more painful and more deaths. Save lives, stay home.

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The Three Bs Will Not Save Trump

The Corona Crisis is upon us and it remains to be seen just how bad it will become. Indications are that the pandemic will continue to spread straining and stressing healthcare system around the world and here in the United States where just in time supply chains and significant dependence upon Chinese manufacturing create an additional economic danger to our already fragile systems.

It is possible that this may ‘burn out’ quickly and the effect may be less severe than they currently appear but it would not be wise to bet the farm upon such an outcome. People are modifying their behavior this past weekend I was at a small convention and the men in the restroom were more diligent about washing their hands than I can ever remember men behaving so.

For Trump the Corona Crisis represents a threat that cannot be defeated with the three Bs of his usual arsenal, Bullying, Bullshitting, or Blocking.

The virus is immune to taunts, nicknames, and intimidation so he cannot bully his way out of danger.

Trump’s propensity for bullshit works perfectly fine in the arena of politics where preferred reality is accepted over actual reality with regularity but emergency rooms are not spin rooms and no amount of clever language or outright lies will change a single infection to a healthy person. Viral Pneumonia doesn’t care what you told anyone, it will do what it does including spreading and killing.

The Senate Republicans have been Trump’s political protectors, covering up his crimes, blocking investigations, and transforming his guilt into innocence, but against a pandemic they are powerless. They cannot table the matter or refuse to take it and make it disappear by denying it airtime in the news cycle. People are going to get sick, people are going to die, and radio talk show hosts calling it a common cold will do nothing to change that reality.

If this burns out quickly and if the effects on the economy are brief and mild then Trump may escape through luck, but if the gets worse, if it returns stronger in the fall, then his golden ride may finally be over.

 

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COVID-19 and Thinking About Presidencies

The novel corona Virus causing a SARS-like illness, COVID-19. has reached the United States and appears to have begun sustained community transmission. At this point the only questions is how deep it will spread not if it will spread. Most people who are infected will have a mild illness, but some, particularly the immune compromised and the elderly are at elevated risk for serious and life-threatening respiratory complications including a viral pneumonia that is difficult to treat. Any potential vaccine is likely more than a year away and many important questions about this pandemic remain unanswered.

Will the spread stop during the hotter months as if often but not always the case with corona viruses?

If it recedes during the summer will it return stronger in the fall and winter as again with many viruses or will it simply fade as some do?

Will this become a regular seasonal event now that the virus is global?

For people who have been exposed to the virus how long with their natural immunity persist? Weeks? Months? Years?

It is best not to panic but there are sensible precautions everyone can take.

Wash your damn hands.

Regularly clean touched surfaces, particularly any that are shared publicly.

If you fall into a population that is at greater risk consider canceling travel and avoiding large crowds.

Now, what does the COVID-19 outbreak have to say about voting for president?

Well, it’s clearly too late to change presidents now, we have to deal with this international crisis with the president we have not one we would prefer but this is instructive in what qualities you should value in a chief executive.

Many people look for similar value or morals as their prime motivator in selection a president while other turn to policy and proposed programs as their method of selection. Both are valid but I think miss a major component of what makes the best choice, judgment.

Every president is going to face unexpected events that require decision from them. When we elect a representative, we are not just selecting a person to advance a particular political philosophy but also a person who will need to make judgements often with incomplete information. When thinking about who you want as a president think about if you trust them to make judgements free of their self-interest, free of political dogma, and free of an ego that would prevent them from reversing course if their initial choice turns out to be in error. Those factors, for me anyway, far outweigh any positions taken on a particular subject or policy. A person who fails those qualification will invite disaster.

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