There’s no doubt now that Rick Santorum has become the latest, last, Not-Romney to capture to attention of the conservative base. This I think will swing the next couple of contests from arguments about who funded what and who spent what to the social conservative issues of gay, abortion, and contraceptives.
Frankly, I do not think this is a good thing from a Republican point of view, as the public opinion on these issue is not in synch with the bases view on these issues. It does, however, give the voters of the base a clear sharp difference between the candidates. Romney can speak the words all he likes, the base knows he’s not one of them on these issues. He is of the northeast wing of the party and that is a wing not steeped in the fire, brimstone, and sin of the hardcore religious base. (That is not to say that all religious people are like that, despite the protests from the conservative base you can be Christian and liberal.) Santorum however is a member of that base. He’s made the social issue his issue and it’s a hill he is quite willing to fight and fall upon, the question is will the Party fight and die on that hill.
I think if Santorum is the nominee, it will be a disaster for the Party. I think it will help re-energize the liberal youth votes, a section of the voting population Obama really needs to turn out and vote, but for whom arcane budget, deficit, and tax talk are not stimulating.
The timing of the 9th circuit courts recent decision to invalidate Proposition 8 in California and restore marriage equality works in Santorum’s favor, as does the recent HHS regs about birth control access via insurance and mandates that will be applied to church owned businesses.
(I find the Prop 8 ruling interesting, and I am not entirely unsympathetic to it. If I understand it correct in essence the court has said once a right has been recognized, the rescinding of that right is subject to strict scrutiny. As someone who wholeheartedly believes individual rights, I’m happy with the rights being on a ratchet that slides easier in one direction than in the reverse.)
The economy is, slowly, improving; the Republicans are involved in a protracted and bloody conflict for the soul of their party; Obama suffers not threats from his left or base, and time is drawing short. While this cold very quickly flip, I have to say that Obama is in a stronger position today than I would have predicted.
Time to pop the popcorn
And pray tell what are the core convinctions that define the ‘Tea Party?’
The battle for the soul of the Republican party was during 2009-10. People like Senator Specter lost. And the Tea Party won.
Romney may slide into the nomination and there is a danger conservatives could get sucked into making excuses for him. But in anticipation of a Romney nomination conservative groups are already talking about refocusing their energy on lower level efforts such as the U.S. Senate, rather than poison themselves by association with Romney.
http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2012/01/12/as-romney-rises-tea-party-focuses-on-senate-races/
“What? As bad as Santorum might be on social conservatism, your view of the situation reads Santorum as a caricature. Why would Santorum all of a sudden choose the ground of social-conservatism over which to grapple with Romney? When in contrast Santorum hasn’t done that so far, and when there are better means to slam Romney with, such as attacking Romneycare, with which Santorum has already eagerly applied?”
Because it is not all of a sudden, this has been the principle mark of his candidacy. Vows to re-instate ‘don’t ask don’t tell’, vocal arguments for marriage equality, these are the things he’s been saying for months, it’s what matters to him, deeply. This is not a small government conservative. This man voted for Medicare Part D and endorsed Phil Specter as a Senator for PA. He’s been a big earmark and a big spender.
“Economy improving? Last years 1.7% economic growth, and ever increasing gas prices are interesting examples of improvement. Sounds more like stalled to me.”
Projected to grow this year by 2.3, the unemployment rate is falling and consumer confidence is rising. This is a recovering, but slowly, economy.
I do think this is part of a battle for the soul of the party. Without the unifying aspects of anti-communism there is a three way battle going on for what is the principle direction for the Republican Party, there’s the New England, Good Government, Moderates (Which I think Romney truly is no matter the words in his mouth), the libertarian faction, and the social conservative faction, all fighting to determine the general direction of the party and frankly it looks to me like the Social Conservatives are winning.
“This I think will swing the next couple of contests from arguments about who funded what and who spent what to the social conservative issues of gay, abortion, and contraceptives.”
What? As bad as Santorum might be on social conservatism, your view of the situation reads Santorum as a caricature. Why would Santorum all of a sudden choose the ground of social-conservatism over which to grapple with Romney? When in contrast Santorum hasn’t done that so far, and when there are better means to slam Romney with, such as attacking Romneycare, with which Santorum has already eagerly applied?
Mind you in the general election, I can see Santorum catching flack from the Democrats over social-conservatism (particularly on abortion and gay rights), and Santorum won’t back down at all. But even in the general election I don’t see why Santorum would put social-conservatism front and center when the election is really a referendum on Obama.
“The economy is, slowly, improving; the Republicans are involved in a protracted and bloody conflict for the soul of their party; Obama suffers not threats from his left or base, and time is drawing short. While this cold very quickly flip, I have to say that Obama is in a stronger position today than I would have predicted.”
Economy improving? Last years 1.7% economic growth, and ever increasing gas prices are interesting examples of improvement. Sounds more like stalled to me.
And I hardly describe the Presidential contest as a “bloody conflict for the soul”. Bloody for the candidates sure. But the Party is much more than whoever the Presidential candidate is. The same is true of the Democratic Party, which is why the Democrats are so much on the outs today and why things are likely to get worse for them.
I stumbled over this (admittedly long) speech given at CPAC. But what a speech. I think it sums up things incredibly well from the conservative point of view about the stakes and context of this years political developments in America. It so much more than whoever ends up President.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BujuEpGmKMg&feature=player_embedded#!