In the recent fight over the appoint of Judge Kavanaugh to the U.S. Supreme Court one group is liberals tried to incentive Senator Susan Collins of Maine to defect from her party, the Republicans, and vote against the judge’s confirmation. To do this that started a crow-funded campaign to raise money for her yet unknown 2020 general election campaign opponent. Their statement was simple vote yes and the money raised would be donated to the unknown Democratic politician, vote no and the people would never be charged for their contribution and the money would never materialize. Collins votes yes and to date I think they have passed the 3 million dollar mark in their fund raising, but in my opinion their attempt was doomed before it began.

Certainly Collins needs to fight and win her general election campaign to keep her spot in the U.S. Senate but before she faces the public in a general election she’ll face her party in a primary election and if she fell there and hazards for the general are instantly meaningless and that is the crux of the reason why this threat was always empty and impotent.

Maine, along with the rest of the GOP, has been becoming more conservative including electing LePage, a Tea party type of Republican, to the governorship. If Collins had voted no on Kavanaugh she would have certainly attracted a primary challenge and already hobbled by a moderate pro-choice position in this increasingly conservative party she would have very likely not survived the primary to go on to the general election so any pressure focused on the general is pointless. Collins was never going to be bowed by a general election threat when taking an action to avoid it cost her the primary election.

Setting aside the issue if the scheme violated any of the incredibly complex campaign finance laws this was never going to succeed and for Collins is may have been meaningless to agonize over this vote. Taking a position to confirm Kavanaugh is no way assures her survival in 2020’s primary, her pro-choice stance along with a smattering of other moderate position already invites a challenge as the party move closer to becoming a reflection of its leader Trump she becomes a progressively poor fit.

The most depressing truth is that what you believe about Kavanaugh and Ford is principally determined by your political affiliation. I remember when the Monica Lewinski scandal broke during the Clinton administration and hearing liberal friends dismiss her entirely as not attractive enough to warrant Bill Clinton’s attention and later conservative friends commenting that without the infamous blue dress and it’s incriminating stain that the Clinton machine would have savaged and torn Ms. Lewinski apart in the court of public opinion. Of course the process of tearing a woman apart in the court of public opinion is going on right this moment and their concerns have evaporated.

Researching a story that required me to get into the head-space of a sexual assault survivor I have read dozens of survivors stories and I have absolutely no doubt that Dr. Ford is indeed a woman who survived such an assault.

However more important that Dr. Ford’s heartbreaking testimony is Judge Kavanaugh’s evasive response. I scarcely expect any person to confess to sexual crimes committed or attempted but his ‘choir boy’ facade, never drank to excess, had only the deepest respect, focused on study and church is laughably false, contradicted by his own yearbook associates from that time period. It is a lie of Trump-like proportions. It causes serious doubt as to his innocence.

Some have repeated that there is no evidence of the assault, and there is unlikely to be any, not after more than 30 years, but let’s look at the evidence argument.

If Judge Kavanaugh is innocent then he should not only welcome a through investigation of the events by the impartial and professional FBI, he should be demanding it. Hell, from my understanding there is not statute of limitation for that jurisdiction as an officer of the court shouldn’t his position be that the crime must be investigated to its fullest? But that’s is not his position. When directly asked if that was what he wanted he sat silent. Further more he asserted that this was a coordinated political hit, that the entire accusation was revenge for his participation in the Clinton sexual investigations. Hell, if that were the case then even more you would want the FBI poking around, pulling threads, and lifting rocks. If there were such a conspiracy you’d want it exposed. As a partisan you’d want to expose the opposition party with bloody red hands. But there is no evidence of this conspiracy. There is no call to investigate this conspiracy. There is only the accusation, made without support and taken at face value as fact.

So there we are, a woman in tears, recounting her sexual assault and not wavering at all in naming who was responsible and a powerful man insisting, without any evidence at all, that he is the victim of a vast left-wing conspiracy. The simplest explanation tends to be the accurate one and between a drunken assault and a coordinated conspiracy I have no doubt which is simplest.