Category Archives: Politics

My 2024-2025 Nightmare Scenario

 

A disaster in 2025 is possibly being laide next week here in 2022. Next week throughout the country vital positions in government are being contested by conspiracy-minded election deniers. Should they win offices in enough future battle groups states then they will be able to subvert our constitutional republic in the presidential elections of 2024.

It will not take many victories to place into vital offices, such as various Secretaries of State to make it possible for these antidemocratic Republicans to either submit a slate of electors of their own choosing or simply submit none at all. Either way with the battleground states at the tipping point thy would be able to install a wholly illegitimate Republican president, one that is very likely to be again Trump.

We would begin 2025 with a president who not only lost the popular votes but only by corrupt means installed into office. The souther enslaving states declared their secession from the Union because Lincoln won the presidency without a single Southern electoral vote but the election itself was seen as legitimate. The election and installing of an illegitimate president will be a magnitude worse.

When this corrupt presidency issues executive orders and action what will be the reaction of the deep blue Democratic states? Will California, Oregon, Washington, New York, and others ‘bend the knee’ to the white house?

I doubt it.

Will they honor the Supreme Court when its social conservative majority rules against them?

I doubt it.

There you have the shattering of our Constitutional Republic.

There you have the end of the Union.

Next Tuesday the future is in your hands, choose wisely.

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Trans is not the New Ban Gay Marriage It’s Worse

 

In 2004 GOP backed initiatives in 11 states passed banning ‘gay marriage.’ During the early 2000s the Republicans repeatedly and consistently placed on local and state ballots initiatives to ‘ban gay marriage’ as a method to energize their base and play upon long held but weakening prejudices. There were enough ‘moderate’ voters holding to those bigotries that winning some of them over could swing elections.

When the current Republican led tirade against Trans people surfaced first surfaced, I thought it was a similar ploy. The ‘Gay issues’ had been settled at the courts and what followed surprisingly quickly was a sea change in public opinion. The ‘ban gay marriage’ movement had been corralled to the most bigoted and no longer held the potential of electoral victory. Trans people, still only a concept to many people and outside of common perception, might hold the key to again energizing the GOP’s base voters while winning over a few of the undecided middle. I do think that the ‘bathroom bills’ and such was a repeat play of the ‘gay marriage’ tactics of the early 2000s, but it has moved far beyond that now.

Following the trail blazed by the former president the GOP now seeks cruelty for its own sake and not merely as an after effect. They now longer couch their arguments and plans in bland inoffensive sounding language but instead drive directly to harmful, cruel, and targeted attacks on Trans people and their families vis the power of the state. From Texas to Florida and beyond the state wielding the terrible club of criminal action batters at a group already heavily marginalized, bullied, beaten, and murdered.

When you combine this with the active plot to destroy representative democracy it is clear that there are no good Republicans left.

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A Flock of Black Swans

 

In just over three weeks here in the United States we will hold our ‘mid-term’ election voting for the entire House of representatives and a third of the Senate, along with numerous statewide and local elections.

Traditionally this election coming in the middle of a president’s first term is one where the party not currently holding the Presidential powers gains significantly in politician power. Apathy by the party in power and in supporters, energizing anger at being out of power by the opposition, dissatisfaction with the unrealized and usually impossible promises of the current administration all combine to push the traditional direction of these mid-term elections.

If forced to place a bet today I would bet that, in general, this trend will hold, and the GOP will gain control of the House. But that bet would be at considerably lowers odds that in past mid-term elections.

Every election is unique but this one sees factors never before in play.

Usually, a president defeated at the box office quietly fades for a number of years from public life, leaving the electoral fight to a new wave of candidates. Not this time. The Former Guy has held nearly continuous rallies and has forced candidate after candidate to effectively swear their undying fealty to him and his lies that the last election was ‘stolen.’ Instead of allowing the public to focus on the new administration and its inevitable failings the Former Guy is reminding everyone what was so unpleasant about the last election. The one he lost.

After the last election a coordinated and violent attempt to overturn its results marred our perfect record of a peaceful transferer of power. Even when Lincoln won the 1860 election without a single elector from the Enslaving States, they attempted to separate themselves from the Union and not overthrow the election. The horrific images of the assault on the Capitol have not faded in part because the Former Guy insists on remaining in the public eye, continually reminding the public of his attempted coup.

In the intervening years since the last election the highest court of the land has also taken utterly unprecedented action, stripping, for the first time, recognized individual rights from the American people. This has possibly energized a base that would normally be complacent or even resentful of an administration that has failed to deliver everything the base desires.

Are these factors enough, are there are black swans, to change the course and upset the historical expectation?

I don’t know. I hope so, but I simply cannot know.

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Thoughts on Heinlein’s Starship Troopers

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One of the most divisive science-fiction novels published is Robert A. Heinlein’s Starship Troopers. Written as one his juvenile novels it was rejected out of hand by the publisher and immediately upon publication by another house stirred intense political debate that carries on to the present day. My meager thoughts in no way will settle this argument and for those firmly fixed in their camps nothing will dislodge them.

Troopers posits a future where humanity has spread out to the stars following some war with itself that left in its wake a unified government ending unrest and ushering in a period of

G.P. Putnam’s & Sons

prosperity. The political system of this unified government is a democracy, but one where the right to vote and run for office, the civil franchise, is restricted solely to those who have served in the armed forces.

This ‘only veterans’ franchise is often labeled by the novel’s critics as ‘fascist’ and a system of military rule. While I think the system proposed actually would never work in practice and the author hand-waved his way past serious political and practical issues, both critiques miss the mark.

Fascism has no simple, agreed upon definition. It is often hurled as a charge towards a political system, movement, or person that someone intensely disagree with. The left hurls it at the right and right throws it back. Setting aside the definition of childish tantrums, to me Fascism is a species of the political right, obsessed with a distorted and false view of history, former ‘glory,’ centralized authoritarian government, and most importantly of all the philosophy that the individual’s only value is what the state can extract from them.

The novel gives very little to no description of the culture surrounding its political system. What little history that is presented is fed to the reader as exposition to explain the political system and how it arose with nothing that glorifies some idealized historical vision.

Equally unexplored is the actual details political system. We know that military service is required for the franchise and that active-duty personnel do not have the vote but how centralized is thew power is a question that is never addressed. The closest the reader comes to understanding the culture and the government is the barbaric punishment of flogging is a common judicially ordered punishment. This predilection for cruelty as punishment is the most fascistic aspect of the novel’s setting.

Many critics point to required military service as a fascistic aspect, but I think it doesn’t meet that criterion. Fascist regimes such a Fascist Italy or NAZI Germany treat the people as something that had an obligation to the state. An obligation that could not be refused. Their service to the state was something required not chosen. The system in Starship Trooper is an inverse of that philosophy. Service is given, always at the choice of the person, and in fact the novel gives the impression that people are dissuaded from choosing to serve as more than one character attempts to talk to the protagonist out of volunteering. This plays into the novel’s philosophy of graded level of morality and I’ll speak to that and its error later in the piece. The core central issue here is that in a fascist setting the power is with the state, a state that compels service and here the power is with the individual choosing to serve.

One of the novel’s many exposition heavy scenes also display the frantic handwaving to make this political system work. An instructor asks the class why does the system work and after the students offer possible answers based on the limitation on the franchise, better people, chosen people, and so on, the teacher simply answer it works because it does. Utterly circular logic. It works because the author wants it to work.

Elsewhere in the work it is put forward that there are levels of morality with morality defined as the willingness to put oneself in danger for a goal or purpose. The lowest and most base level is self-interest. ‘I look out for number one and no one else.’ The system then progresses through family, friends, and loved one with the ‘highest’ level of morality being expressed when someone serves and risks all for their community.

Heroic self-sacrifice is a common trope in adventure fiction and something that is nearly universally admired. We need to look no further in the genre than Spock’s solution to Kobayashi Maru test in The Wrath of Khan to see this presented as noble. That said it, in my opinion, is a lousy system to base your politics upon.

The logic in Starship Troopers is that those who volunteer to place their lives on the line by serving in the military are exhibiting a ‘higher’ level or morality and thus are ‘worthy’ of the franchise and political power. This is flawed for several of reasons.

First, while the novel goes out of its way to make clear that no one can ever be denied the chance to serve it is also clear that military discipline is in effect and people are ‘mustered out’ of the service and thus forever lose the chance to exercise the franchise. That means on a practical level the military while forced to accept every as a recruit can still eliminate anyone it does not want to have the franchise. It is far too easy for a military to expel members to use service as a qualification for the franchise.

Second, it presumes the motive for joining the military is a desire to serve. This ignores the possibility of enlisted to learn a trade, experience adventure, escape an unpleasant home, or even to live the thrill of combat and killing.

Another reason this is a terrible idea is that it sees the only meaningful way to serve your community is by way of the military. Teaching, local services, research, and healthcare, the last having its own unique dangers all too well know with the current COVID pandemic, are all ways to place your own needs second to your fellow citizens’.

While I cannot agree with those who hurl ‘fascist’ at the novel’s philosophy, nor can I endorse it. Between handwaving and some very broad and simplistic assumptions it simply ignores the world as the way I have experienced it working.

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Political Thoughts

The world is on fire but there is hope. Remember that the essential message of The Lord of the Rings is that despair if a failing because it presumes a determined future, and no one can know the future where unlikely events can produce unlikely and joyful outcomes.

The War in Ukraine

Certainly, over the last weekend things have improved for the Ukrainians. Russian lines have shattered in some sectors and there are reports that Ukrainian forces have reached parts of the Russian border. But the war is not over. We may, looking back with the advantage of history, see this as a turning point or we may see it as another battlefield fluctuation. What we need to do is continue supporting the Ukrainians in their fight with weapons, money, and morale.

American Politics

The political system of the United States is also aflame and here the structure is fully engulfed. The slow steady poisoning of the Republican party with racists and authoritarians has brought that body politic fully into its diseased state. From New Hampshire to Arizona the GOP is infected, controlled, and Led by people who have rejected democracy. The former president did not create this situation, he is a product of the infection not its cause. As someone who was a registered Republican from 1980 thru 2003 it boggles my mind to see the party in its current state. If you are someone born in the 90s this may seem ‘normal’ to you and that the GOP has merely thrown off the mask and revealed its true nature, but it doesn’t look that way to me.

To me it is far stranger and far more extreme than that.

In the 80s conservatives often anti-nuclear power and weapons movements ‘watermelons,’ because they were ‘green on the outside and red on the inside.’ The Soviet Union helped fund and promote those groups and movements to disrupt the West and NATO. These groups and associated travelers were considered foolish and gullible by the right for how they accepted Soviet propaganda as truth with any healthy skepticism and now those roles have been reversed. It is the conservatives embracing and promoting Russian propaganda with qualm or reservation. It is the conservative pulling Russian aggression to their bosom and declaring it just and good. It’s nearly incomprehensible to witness. Literally for decades I have heard conservatives rant and snarl about a supposed ‘deal’ from Edward Kennedy to take Russian assistance in a bid for the presidency. (A tale that has but one unverified source.) And now they openly proclaim that they would rather be Russian than a democrat. They turn a blind eye to mountains of evidence of Russian interference in American Politics. For those of that lived through the final stages of the Cold War this is a topsy-turvy as when Kirk found himself in the Dystopian Terran Empire. I hope that this year’s election defies the historical norms, that young people, so fickle in their off-year elections, arrive in droves and surprise us with Democratic victories, but even if that doesn’t come to be, the fight goes on and I will not despair.

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It’s Never Simply Policy

I recently got into a very brief exchange, cordial and pleasant, were as they complained about West Virginia Senator Joe Machin I advised that at this time this was the very best they could hope for out of a state that went for Trump by nearly 40 points. They were unconvinced and spoke of winning WV with ‘Democratic Values.’

Here’s the thing, helping people with their medical bills, lowering the costs of vital medicines, protecting them from predatory corporations, and exploitation by their employers seems to many like winning arguments and intuitively self-obvious reasons to support Democratic candidates. But people only sometime vote by policy. I think much more often and much more powerfully it is ‘vibes’ and culture that move people and provide incentives to action. You cannot win people’s support, no matter how generous the policy, if the price is perceived to be an attack on their culture and thus an attack on the people themselves. How many progressives would accept a deal where the nation gets fully socialized healthcare for every single person in the country, but every school is also required to tech that anything other than heterosexual coupling is ‘abnormal’ and a ‘perversion.’ Very few I suspect, and they would be right to reject such a thing. The hypothetical deal is absurd and fallacy of extremes, but the core concept is sound, people will reject material advantages for ‘cultural’ issues. Culture can and does change and it can be guided, poked, and prodded along so what is true today culturally is not what will be true in a decade or two but to win in places such as West Virginia at the very least you must not offend the people by attacking their culture.

This is an element often ignore or progressives are ignorant of when attacking Trump. He is a vile, racist, authoritarian bully and I desperately want to see him in prison orange, stripped of his make-up and his wig. However, when I see elites attacking him for things such as his love of junk and fast food I am angered. They are too blinded by their desire to attack the piece of shit that they fail to see they are also attacking scores of people for whom KFC or McDonalds are normal and enjoyable fare. Creating that division of ‘us’ and ‘them’ only binds them to the orange man-baby tighter. There is no policy argument that will win over such basic tribal identity as that one.

Sadly, that battle has already been lost. Nearly seven years of snobbish attacks have well welded these people culturally to Trump but that is not enough to assure him electoral victory. I beg progressives do not go for the cheap shot and the stereotype attacks but please try and think about where you can win with culture in addition to policy. Our nation depends upon it.

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The Racist Titration of the GOP

On a recent podcast I heard conservative commentator Mona Charen state that she was shocked at how quickly the GOP became Trump’s GOP. The host, Charlie Sykes, repeated his long-presented view that the racist authoritarian streak in the GOP had been a ‘recessive gene’ that has now become dominate but this is a terrible analogy for what has happened, absolving all those ‘good’ conservatives for their action and inaction that created the current condition. A better analogy is found in chemistry class: Titration.

In titration one liquid is slowly, drop by drop, added to another. The base liquid is clear and colorless and at first e3ach drop appears to do nothing. The swirl the mixture but it remains clear, colorless. Then after a number of drop colors appears but fades quickly away in the swirling returning to the clear colorless form. But at some point, a single drop transforms the mixture and now the flask is filled with a colored fluid that had just moments before been colorless. It has changed and seeming from a single drop but of course it was a process that had been carried out over time.

This is what has happened to the GOP. Listen to ‘Never Trumpers’ and after a short time someone will remind you that in the old days, they threw out the crazy Birchers, that the party used to enforce rationality. But that was in the early 60s by the late 60s Nixon played his Southern Strategy, inviting in the racists whom the Democrats had enraged with the Civil Right legislation of the great society. The drops of racism began to be added to the GOP, but it wasn’t much, and it didn’t really change the nature of the party. Then there was Nixon’s War on Drugs and that was quite deliberately not enforced equally across racial lines. More Drops into the mixture. Welfare Queens, Crack babies, and more and more drops added to the mixture, flashes of racist color but with enough swirling you could make them go away. Crime Bills and torture for brown people were more drops added to the liquid, along with ballot initiatives against ‘illegal immigrants’ that really targeted more brown people. Throughout this process the left ceased to be political opponents and were the enemy of the nation.

Trump didn’t ‘change the GOP,’ he was the final drops the completed its titration into a neo-fascist, racist, caricature of the party that had thrown out the Bircher only to crawl back into bed with them.

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Is The Dawn Beginning to Break in the East?

Yesterday, in Kansas a state that the former idiot won in 2020, after all the scandal, sadism, and incompetence of his presidency, by 14 points the voters went to the polls with an option of stripping abortion rights from the state’s constitution.

The evil Republicans had done everything in their power to advantage themselves in their quest to strip people of their rights. They had placed the ballot imitative on a primary schedule when turnout among Democrats would be low but high among their own base. They wrote the proposal in twisted, contorted language to obfuscate its meaning and effect. They even ran ads blatantly lying that the proposal would protect rights and choice.

And it availed them not.

By about 17 points, a spread greater than the Orange Man-baby’s victory in 2020, the citizens of Kansas rejected the lies, the deceit, and the cruelty of the Modern Republican Party defeating the proposal.

We are still in the clutches of the dreadful night of the insanity of the GOP. And that night is long and full of terrors but perhaps the very first, faint, glimmers of dawn’s light are breaking in the East with this victory. Perhaps the first stirrings of a great giant are rumbling from Kansas. Perhaps to paraphrase Gandalf ‘The Democrats are to going to wake up and realize that they are strong.’

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Abusing the Word Private

One of the recent controversial and in my opinion dishonest ruling from the Supreme Court of The United States is Kennedy v Bremerton School District which ruled that the school district violated Coach Kennedy’s right when it fired him for conducting prayers on the football field directly following games. I will not relitigate the case, there are numerous good sources to understand the legal issues in contention, but I want to point you towards a podcast, Advisory Opinion, where the lawyer representing Kennedy appeared and argued the case for the hosts and the public. Hiram Sasser abused the English language so thoroughly that words ceased to having meaning, particularly the word ‘private.’

Sasser argued that his client had engaged in private prayer which is Kennedy’s right to exercise and the school district trampled on his religiously liberty by firing him.

This ‘private’ prayer took place on the football field, immediately following the game. A field which just moments ago had been the focus of attention for a stadium full of people. It is difficult to conceive of a setting less private. Had Coach Kennedy strode out to the 50-yard line and begun masturbating I doubt a single conservative in the nation would have considered this a ‘private’ act. The abuse of the word continues. Members of the football team followed Kennedy to the field as asked if they could join him to which he reported replied ‘It’s a free Country.’ Call me a stickler for language but when you participate with other in an activity, others who members of the general population and not there by invitation, that is public and not ‘private.’ The continued abuse of the language in describing any of this as ‘private’ is nothing short of dishonest doublethink. In my personal opinion, clearly not private as I am stating it in the open and in full view Sasser, the Supreme Court engaged in deceptive contorted logic with selective facts to arrive at the conclusion that the conservatives had already decided was the one that they wanted.

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Monsters from the Id

In the classic SF film Forbidden Planet Professor Morbius enhanced by alien technology unleashes his Id as an indestructible monster to protect his paradise. In a very similar manner, the GOP crafted and unleashed their own Id when they struck the bargain in the Southern Strategy welcoming racists to win elections and now that monster is the party instead of the party’s beast. None of the those ‘wiser’ heads foresaw or intended for today’s Republican party. They had the very best of intentions, but forces unchained are quite difficult to contain.

Today I am seeing many on the left looking to their own monster to wield and that monster is violence. In their minds the recent and terrible court decisions are not a call to political action and work but rather a ‘justification’ to unleash the mob. hat rioting and violence are the bargains they would strike today.

I would ask them whose deaths are justified by their anger?

Thomas?

Roberts?

McConnel?

The Capitol Police person who just happens to be ‘in the way.’

Violence by its nature is uncontrolled and unruly. It will spread further then you ever intent and its final results are unforeseeable.

Violence is always justified in the first person and a crime in the third.

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