So it’s about three weeks until the elections and it’s time to put my rep on the line. Here’s my rum down — barring any major events that upset the applecart (peachcarts are always ignored, le sigh.)
The Democrats have about 46 solid seats that can be considered safe or not up for re-election, the Republicans have 35, that leaves about 19 seats up for grabs of which the Republicans need 16 to gain a majority. 16 out of 19 that’s a mighty steep hill. But of that 16 they only need 11 pick-ups to gain control.
Connecticut: The democrat Blumenthal has about an 8.5 point lead over the Republican. The Republican is closing, but there isn’t much time left. It will be close, but I will call it for the Democrats.
Pennsylvania: Here the Republican has a lead of about 7.7 points, and it is widening. Call this one republican, and it’s a pick-up from across the isle. (Republicans +1)
Delaware: Here the Democrats have a smashing 13 point lead over Republican and Tea-party favorite Christine O’Donnell. If O’Donnell come with 4 pts of winning expect a totally crushing night for the Democrats. I call this one for the Democrats.
West Virginia: Republicans are up by 6.2 points and pulling away, so this one I think will go Republican and it is another pick-up. (Republicans +2)
Florida: Three-way races are tough ones to call, but Rubio is pulling ahead and I expect that Crist and teh Democrat will split the rest. Call it for Rubio. (Republican +3)
Ohio, Indiana, and Kentucky: all go Republican, but only one is a pick-up. (republicans +4)
Louisiana: Stays Republican.
Arkansas: After a bruising year expect the incumbent Democrat to lose, another Republican pick-up (Republicans +5)
Missouri: Stays Republican.
Illinois: the republican has a 2.2 point lead, that’s really close, but this year it is enough. I expect that it will be a Republican win and a pick-up, and a propaganda coup as this is Obama’s old seat. (Republican +6)
Wisconsin: The Democrat, a long term incumbent, is down by almost 10 point tonight. Republican win and pick-up. (Republican+7)
Colorado: Democrats are down by 4.8 points. Another Loss and pick-up. (Republican +8)
Nevada: less than a point between the Democrat, Reid and the Republican Angle. More than 7.5 undecided. Normally that would be a small advantage to the incumbent, but I don;t think so this year. If O’Donnell does well then Angle flat out winds it. I will call it for Angle and a pick-up. (Republican+9)
Washington: Democratic incumbent is up by 3.2 points, very tight, but a state that is more centre-left than right. I thin the Democrats will hold on to this one. (If O’Donnell comes within 4, expect this one to go over as well.)
Alaska: Currently Held by a Republican who lost her primary and now has turned it into a three-way race. Write ins are really tough. I expect Miller the republican to will. No pick-up though.
California: If O’Donnell get with 4 Boxer is boxed and shipped home, otherwise she stays in the senatye.
My prediction is that the republicans will pick-up a number of seats, but not enough gain control of the senate.