November’s Coming…

…But what will happened when it gets here.

Statistician Nate Silver places the odds of a Republican taker-over of the House at about 50%, lower than I would have expected . I wish we had the aggregate polling data from 1994 because I would love to see an apples to apples comparison on the generic ballot.

One thing that we are not seeing that a lot of people told me we would see is that passing healthcare reform would send people packing to vote the Democrats out of power. That a vote for HCR was in effect a vote for the Democrats to cut their own throats.

While HCR is still more unpopular than it is popular, there has been no swing against it and in fact support for it has been rising.

Sop if November comes and the Democrats hold on to the House by a seat or two, what does that mean?


4 thoughts on “November’s Coming…”

    1. I think the talk of 80-100 seat loss is utterly foolish. The screwy incumbent advantage I think would preclude such a lop-sided result.
      39 seat for the Republicans to take control I think is doable and even likely — remember I did say that Nate Silver’s 50/50 seemed low in my opinion. (however he did an excellent job calling the 2008 results.) 50 would but a huge surprise.

  1. “Sop [sic] if November comes and the Democrats hold on to the House by a seat or two, what does that mean?”

    It means Obama won’t be able to run against a Republican Congress during his re-election campaign in 2012. Because of that, it’s in Obama’s interest for the Democrats to get blown out in 2010.

    The Democrat’s have had majority control of both houses of Congress for the last four years. And what a mess. Of course in a Democracy people get the government that they deserve.

    Oh, and here’s a fun link. It’s the Chicago Way!

    A DOJ official resigns, and blows the whistle on the corrupt Obama administration of the DOJ. Hope and Change!

  2. Well, I think part of what it will mean is that the American public, though they may not like HCR in its current form, recognize that something must (MUST) be done to improve health care in America. We were past the point when we needed to act so thank goodness somebody did something, even though it still needs work!

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