November’s Coming…

…But what will happened when it gets here.

Statistician Nate Silver places the odds of a Republican taker-over of the House at about 50%, lower than I would have expected . I wish we had the aggregate polling data from 1994 because I would love to see an apples to apples comparison on the generic ballot.

One thing that we are not seeing that a lot of people told me we would see is that passing healthcare reform would send people packing to vote the Democrats out of power. That a vote for HCR was in effect a vote for the Democrats to cut their own throats.

While HCR is still more unpopular than it is popular, there has been no swing against it and in fact support for it has been rising.

Sop if November comes and the Democrats hold on to the House by a seat or two, what does that mean?

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