This is a response to a post this morning by political blogger Andrew Sullivan about Sarah Palin. Now Andrew has many fine traits as a political blogger, but among his down-checks is a bit of an obsession about Sarah Palin.
(Before anyone brings it up just let me state I see no reason to believe that Trig is anyone’s baby but Sarah’s.)
This morning missive from Andrew is in response to Sarah’s speech at the Tear Party Conventions last night. (An event that is getting media well outside of its just share. Consider that the convention this weekend that getting coverage from all the major media, left and right, is less than half the size of a LosCon science-fiction convention.) Andrews reads Sarah’s mood as stately plainly that she is planning on running for president in 2012.
Now 2012 is a long time away and all sorts of events are going to happen between now and then. Any predictions are of course subject to the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune and should be taken with grains of salt that would make your doctor blanch.
That said, I do not think she is running or planning to run for president. My personal opinion about Sarah Palin is that is narcissistic, lazy, greedy, and vengeful and that some of these traits will be the primary reason why she will not run for president in 2012.
We have reports from different sources — usually unnamed — about her performance on the last presidential ticket. It paints a woman more interested in the celebrity of being a politician than in actually being a politician. She didn’t want to learn the facts or the skills for the job and chose to go her own way. Now lots of politicians want to go their own way, but they usually have a sharp instinct for the skills of being a politician. Knowing what sort of information you have to have on hand and what sorts you can fake. Sarah Palin seems to have neither.
That by itself wouldn’t mean she’s not going to run, she could be just lacking in the self-awareness to know what her deficiencies are however we also know that she quit half-way through her term as governor of Alaska. There was a lot of speculation when she announced as to why she suddenly up and quit. When she quit one of the speculations I blogged about was money — 3) She’s gotten a better offer. Some sort of TV show or other major media spotlight that pays better and flatters her ego better. This is credible if that’s what she really wants. To be the conservative Oprah would be a gig she is well suited for — but then again I don’t a high opinion of Oprah as a thinker either. If this is the case we’ll hear about it soon, otherwise why quite now? We now see she is pulling down heft speaking fees, is making oodles of money from her book (which may not be her last) and has a nice gig on Fox as an analyst. Things that strokes the ego and fattens the bank account. I don’t see her giving that up. I could be wrong but that’s my take on her. I think she ecstatic in her current position and she’s not going to throw it away with a presidential run.
That doesn’t mean Sarah won’t act like she might run. I think she knows where her fan base is and that her fans want her to run. I think she’s going play them like a high school tease plays hormone-addled boys. There will be the hints and suggestions that she might give in and give them what she wants, but all the while she’ll be raking in her loot and getting what she wants first.
Let’s say I am wrong on this and she does want to run. It’s certainly possible. I don’t think she’ll get the nomination — something again Mr. Sullivan fears. First all she will not be the only social conservative in the field. I think Huckabee will be back and they’ll be fighting over the same voters. Second she’s not that talented in running a hard, long campaign. (Remember I think she is lazy.) I think especially with Iowa’s caucus system which requires lots of hard work and top flight organization she’ll get blown out early by much more capable Republicans. Also when it comes to fighting for the nomination, she’ll get shived in that back (metaphorically speaking) by her Republican opposition. I do not think that Sarah will run and I do not think she will win the nomination if she does run.
Andrew Sullivan ends his post with the words — know fear. I don’t fear Sarah she’s not a pitbull she’s a tease.